Right, so you want to talk about palladium? Specifically, the Euro price? Honestly, after staring at these charts for the better part of a sleepless night fueled by questionable coffee and the lingering dread of maybe missing something obvious, I\’m not sure I want to talk about it. But here we are. My desk is littered with scribbled notes, half-empty mugs, and the faint glow of Bloomberg Terminal charts reflecting in my tired eyes. The thing about palladium, especially priced in Euros, is that it feels like trying to nail jelly to a wall while riding a rollercoaster. Blindfolded.

Remember 2022? Or even early 2023? Feels like a lifetime ago in market terms. Palladium was riding high, the darling of the PGMs (Platinum Group Metals, for the uninitiated), fueled by this relentless narrative: internal combustion engines (ICE) need palladium for catalytic converters, emissions standards are tightening globally, supply is tight, especially with Russia being a major producer… you know the tune. It hit what, €2800 per troy ounce? Something insane like that. People were practically mortgaging their grandmothers to get a piece. And why not? The story made sense. Solid. Industrial demand, constrained supply. Textbook.

Then… it all started to feel a bit less solid. Like the ground shifting under your feet. Slowly at first. The whispers about electric vehicles (EVs) started getting louder. Not just Tesla fanboys, but serious projections from the likes of the IEA, major automakers putting actual dates on phasing out ICE production. Volkswagen. Ford. Even Toyota, the hybrid king, ramping up BEV plans. Every headline felt like a tiny chisel hitting the core belief holding palladium up. \”But,\” we told ourselves, \”the transition will take decades! Emerging markets! Heavy-duty vehicles! Aftermarket demand!\” The charts, though… they started looking less like a majestic ascent and more like someone slowly deflating a particularly expensive balloon.

And then came the supply side surprises. Or rather, the lack of the expected disasters. Sanctions on Russia? Yeah, they happened. But the actual flow of Russian palladium… it didn\’t just stop. It found ways. Maybe not as smoothly, maybe at a discount, but it kept coming. South African mines, plagued by their own issues for years, didn\’t collapse further in some dramatic fashion. Inventories, those hidden buffers we all worry about, didn\’t vanish overnight. The feared supply crunch? It felt like it got postponed. Indefinitely. The market started pricing in this new reality: maybe supply isn\’t as tight as we thought, or at least, the immediate panic was overdone.

So, fast forward to now. Sitting here, looking at the EUR/XPD chart hovering around… what is it? €950? €1000? Somewhere painfully south of its glory days. A 60%+ haircut. Brutal. It feels heavy. Like the air before a storm that never quite breaks. The initial panic selling might be over, but the vibe is… resigned? Uncertain? I scroll through analyst reports. \”Bottoming process.\” \”Oversold.\” \”Long-term value.\” Then others: \”Structural decline.\” \”EV headwinds insurmountable.\” \”Further downside possible.\” Honestly, it gives me whiplash. One minute I\’m convinced there\’s blood in the streets and a contrarian play is emerging; the next, I\’m staring at the EV sales figures from China and Europe and wondering if palladium is the new coal.

Here\’s the messy reality that keeps me up, the one that doesn\’t fit neatly into bullish or bearish PowerPoint slides: Palladium isn\’t obsolete. Not yet. Not for a long while. Millions upon millions of ICE cars are on the roads today. They need replacement catalysts. Every year. The global car park isn\’t flipping to electric overnight. It\’s a slow, messy, geographically uneven grind. China, India, vast swathes of the developing world – ICE dominance will persist for years, demanding palladium. Industrial uses beyond autos exist too, though they\’re smaller. Hydrogen tech? Some potential there, but it\’s embryonic, not a near-term savior. So, demand hasn\’t vanished. It\’s just… plateauing? Maybe declining gently? It\’s murky. Really murky.

Supply is equally foggy. Russian material is still a wildcard. Sanctions evolve, enforcement is patchy, alternative routes emerge. Can we reliably model it? Doubtful. South Africa – Eskom\’s power woes are a constant threat, labor issues simmer. New projects? They exist, but they\’re expensive and slow in this interest rate environment. Recycling is growing – more end-of-life cars mean more catalytic converters getting scrapped. That adds supply, dampening the need for primary mine output. It\’s a complex, shifting equation where the variables keep changing.

First, the obvious one: The Deep Value / Mean Reversion Play. The fall has been spectacular. Historically, metals don\’t usually stay this far below their production cost for sustained periods. Some analysts peg the all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for major producers around $900-$1000 USD. We\’re flirting with those levels. If demand just stabilizes and supply hiccups (a South African power crisis deepening, Russian flows genuinely disrupted), the bounce could be sharp. Violent, even. Trading desks love this volatility. Could you catch a swing trade back towards €1200-€1300? Maybe. But it feels like catching a falling knife most days. You need steel nerves and impeccable timing. Mine are currently frayed, thanks.

Second: The Relative Value Play vs. Platinum. This one nags at me. Platinum (€900-€950-ish?) is sitting below palladium for the first time in years. Why? Because platinum benefits more from the hydrogen economy hype (fuel cells), and its auto-catalyst demand is less threatened by EVs in the short-to-medium term (diesel catalysts, gasoline substitution potential). But historically, palladium commanded a hefty premium. Is this convergence permanent? Or is platinum now fundamentally the more favoured PGM? Or… is platinum itself overhyped on hydrogen? If palladium finds any demand stability and platinum\’s hydrogen dreams hit delays (a distinct possibility), does the ratio narrow further, or even flip back palladium\’s way? Playing the spread between them is a classic metals trader move. Requires less conviction on the absolute price and more on the relationship. Feels slightly less terrifying than betting on palladium alone.

Fourth: The Avoidance Play. Let\’s be brutally honest. The clearest narrative right now is bearish. The long-term trend points down as the ICE fleet gradually shrinks. Why fight it? Why not just allocate capital elsewhere? To the miners digging up copper for all those EVs and grid upgrades? To the platinum producers banking on hydrogen? To boring old bonds yielding 4%? Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Walking away feels… sensible. Peaceful, even. But then I see that price tick up 2% on some vague rumour, and the old itch returns. Damn this market.

So where does that leave me? Conflicted. Exhausted. Palladium priced in Euros feels like an asset caught in a slow-motion car crash, but one where the airbags might still deploy before impact. Or maybe the crash is inevitable, and we\’re just waiting for the final crunch. The charts are messy, the fundamentals are shifting sand, and the sentiment is overwhelmingly glum – which, perversely, is sometimes when opportunities lurk. But catching it requires precision I\’m not sure I possess right now, and a stomach I\’m certain I don\’t. Maybe I\’ll just watch from the sidelines, nursing this cold coffee, waiting for clearer signals that might never come. Or maybe I\’ll place a small, speculative punt on the platinum-palladium spread tomorrow, just to feel something. The market, much like this metal, is a fickle beast. And we\’re all just trying not to get trampled. Right, time for more coffee. Or maybe a nap. Definitely one of the two.

【FAQ】

Q: Why is Palladium so damn volatile compared to other metals?
A>Look, it\’s simple math meeting messy reality. The physical market is relatively small compared to, say, gold or copper. We\’re talking maybe 7-8 million ounces a year total supply. That means relatively small shifts in demand or supply – a single large automaker tweaking its quarterly orders, a mine closure that might only last a few weeks, a few tonnes of Russian metal getting temporarily stuck in customs limbo – get magnified. Huge price swings. Plus, it\’s heavily tied to one industry (autos) and one specific technology (ICE catalysts), making it hypersensitive to any news flow about EVs or emissions regs. It\’s like a tiny boat in a stormy ocean. Buckle up.

Q: Should I just buy Platinum instead? It\’s cheaper now and has hydrogen hype.
A>Ugh, the eternal PGM sibling rivalry. Yeah, platinum is cheaper relative to palladium than it\’s been in ages. And yes, the hydrogen fuel cell story is shiny. But here\’s the rub: hydrogen adoption is slow. Like, glacial. Infrastructure costs are insane, and battery EVs are winning the commercial race hands down right now. Platinum\’s auto demand is also linked to diesel (which is declining in Europe) and only partially substitutable in gasoline engines. It\’s not some safe haven. Both metals face headwinds; platinum\’s might just be slightly less gale-force for now, and it has a potential (distant) upside story. But \”cheaper\” doesn\’t automatically mean \”better value.\” It\’s still a bet on an uncertain future. Do your own digging, don\’t just jump ship blindly.

Q: How do I actually invest in Palladium priced in Euros? Miners? Physical? ETFs?
A>Each route stings differently. Physical? Forget it. Buying coins or bars is inefficient (huge premiums over spot), storage/insurance is a pain, and selling is a hassle. Mainly for hardcore preppers or collectors. Miners? Risky. Their stock prices get hammered when palladium drops, but can rocket on rebounds. You\’re also exposed to company-specific risks (mismanagement, mine disasters, labour strikes) on top of metal price risk. Requires serious stock research. ETFs? Easiest for most. Look for physically-backed ETFs listed in Euros, like Xetra-Gold but for palladium (check the tickers, do your due diligence!). You get direct exposure to the spot price movement without handling metal. But you pay an annual management fee (TER), and it\’s still volatile as hell. Futures? Leave that to the pros or the deeply masochistic. Seriously.

Q: Is all the bad news about EVs killing Palladium already priced in?
A>Ah, the million-Euro question. Most of the obvious, near-term EV impact? Probably. The market isn\’t stupid; it sees the sales figures. That\’s why we\’re down 60%. But is all future EV acceleration priced in? What about potential policy shifts speeding things up unexpectedly? Or slower adoption in key emerging markets? What about the rate of decline in ICE vehicle production versus the rate of growth in recycling supply? That\’s the murky bit. The market prices known risks, but struggles with the uncertain pace and depth of long-term structural change. So, maybe the worst known is priced in, but the unknown unknowns… they linger. That uncertainty is the risk premium.

Q: Seriously, is now a good time to buy Palladium as a long-term investment?
A>(Sighs, rubs temples) Do I look like a fortune teller? \”Long-term investment\” implies you believe in a future where palladium demand remains robust for decades. Do you? Honestly? The trend is undeniably down. Sure, it might bounce hard on a supply shock or if EV progress stalls dramatically. You might make a great trade. But a long-term investment? That requires faith that the ICE car park erodes slower than everyone thinks, or that massive new industrial/hydrogen uses emerge fast. It\’s speculative. If you\’ve got a high risk tolerance, believe you\’re smarter than the market spotting a bottom, and can stomach potentially losing a chunk of capital, maybe a small position. But calling it a \”good time\” for a safe, long-term hold? That feels like hopium. I\’m not buying that narrative right now. My \”long-term\” capital is looking elsewhere. But hey, I\’ve been wrong before. Frequently.