The crypto market is once again grabbing headlines all over the globe as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins have been rising rapidly and more and more people are talking about a full-blown bulls run. But after every new high, the question is raised by investors: how much longer will this momentum be able to continue? Cryptocurrency expert Joao Wedson says that we may actually be nearer to the peak of this cycle than what most people think — at least if we consider long-term holders only.
📈 Bitcoin’s Bull Run: The Final Stretch?
In his most recent market review, Wedson infers that Bitcoin might be at its final two months of the ascendant movement for this cycle — a very important time for both profit-taking and risk control. But, he doesn’t fully commit to an end of the bull period, giving the following quote: “we’re not done yet.”
Wedson’s outlook is made up of a mix of on-chain indicators, ETF dynamics, and the behavior of long-term holders, that all give the impression of a rather mature cycle than a new one.
🧠 Key Insights from On-Chain Data
Wedson justifies his viewpoint with three main on-chain metrics that are leading the way to a market close to a critical turning point:
1. Old BTC Movement Patterns
The evidence suggests that Bitcoins held in cold storage for a long time are starting to be moved at a considerable rate. The distribution stage is what this type of activity is usually linked to, as the early investors who controlled the coins through the last cycles are now cashing in their profits.
“Over the past two years, there has been a very distinct relationship between the increased movement of old BTC and the occurrence of local market tops,” Wedson remarks.
2. Reserve Risk Indicator
This indicator, among others, considers big players’ attitudes, long-term in particular, versus price variations. Lately, the Reserve Risk fluctuation implies that faith is weakening – usually the next step is holders selling off their assets.
3. SOPR Trend Signal (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
SOPR is one of the leading profit and loss indicators. In the latest development, this sign has turned bearish, giving wall to short-term sellers, who might dominate in price cooldown.
🔍 ETF Inflows: Not the Whole Story
The mainstream press has largely focused on the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and their purported role as a price driver. Nevertheless, Wedson cautions not to put too much trust in them.
“ETF holdings accounted for half of the recent distribution — but that does not necessarily mean that they are the trendsetter. Long-term investors and major exchanges still have the most impact on the market,” he stated.
This statement refutes the prediction that the entry of institutional investors in the form of ETFs will automatically result in a constant market uptrend. On the contrary, institutional buying is still subject to the cycle of the crypto market and may trigger volatility if large holders decide to sell some of their assets.
🚀 Altcoins Lag Bitcoin — But for How Long?
While the Bitcoin rally is likely coming to an end, there might still be some breathing space left for altcoins. Wedson is of the opinion that altcoins might still be bullish for another three months before they decide to go down the distribution path just like Bitcoin.
The above indicates a typical scenario from the past cycles, where altcoins have had the best performance toward the end of the bull market as retail speculation reaches its peak and liquidity spreads from Bitcoin to other assets.
Nevertheless, this time is known for its instability — the profits can be very high, but the reversals can also be significant.
⚠️ Market Sentiment: Still Positive, But Divided
Signs of a rally losing steam are present; however, the overall mood is still cautiously optimistic. Social media activity, funding rates, and the number of retail participants are all at high levels. Yet on-chain signals beneath the surface are painting a different and more complicated picture – one of insider money possibly getting out already while newcomers are still coming in.
This contrast is a hallmark of the time just before the market top, when euphoria is still palpable, but it is only a matter of time before it becomes clear that late entrants have been caught.
📆 Timeline Summary: Bitcoin and Altcoin Bull Run Forecast
| Asset | Estimated Bull Run Duration Remaining | Key Indicators Signaling Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | ~2 months | Old BTC movement, Reserve Risk, SOPR |
| Altcoins | ~3 months | Lagging correlation, late-stage inflows |
💬 Final Thoughts: Are We Near the Top?
The current crypto bull run has defied expectations, fueled by macro uncertainty, ETF momentum, and growing global interest. But as Wedson’s analysis shows, the underlying structure of the market may be nearing exhaustion — especially for Bitcoin.
That said, the final stages of a bull market are often the most volatile and profitable, making this a pivotal time for investors to stay alert, manage risk, and avoid complacency.
“Don’t just follow the headlines — follow the data,” Wedson cautions.
❗Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor.
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